Blue Jays Early Season Report Cards (Part 2: Starting Pitchers and Position Players)
Thursday is “early next week” in some cultures, I’m sure.
Part One can be found here.
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(All basic, expected, and Statcast stats as of after the game on June 6, 2022)
STARTING PITCHERS
Kevin Gausman
Stats: 11 games, 64.2 innings, 2.78 ERA, 1.62 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 27.5 K%, 2.6 BB%, .264 BA Against, .277 wOBA Against, 0.28 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.93 xERA, 2.58 xFIP, .255 xBA Against, .290 xwOBA Against, .389 xwOBACON Against, 0.58 xHR/9
Truly a shame Kevin Gausman can’t pitch in the AL East. Really sucks that the first half of his 2021 was a mirage. The Jays should’ve gone with sinkerballer Robbie Ray. You truly hate to see it.
Gausman’s splitter has been exactly as good as advertised, with a -8 Run Value, second-best on the team (that’s a -2.1 Run Value per 100 pitches, equalling his mark from last year). When that low splitter is getting chases, and when that mid-90s four-seamer is dotted high on the edge of the zone, he’s seemed just about unstoppable, racking up some strikouts, walking almost no one, and limiting dangerous contact.
GRADE: A (Get it? Because the “A” is split?)
Alek Manoah
Stats: 10 games, 63.2 innings, 1.98 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 23.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, .205 BA Against, .253 wOBA Against, 0.71 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 2.44 xERA, 3.65 xFIP, .230 xBA Against, .266 xwOBA Against, .317 xwOBACON Against, 0.45 xHR/9
“Stefan, you handsome genius” I hear you asking. “If Kevin Gausman’s split-fingered fastball has the second-best run value on the team, which pitch has the best one?”
Manoah gets a surprisingly ordinary amount of fastball velocity, whiffs, and strikeouts, but despite still occasionally losing some control, he’s cut down on walks quite drastically, with a 8.7 BB% in 2021 and a 4.0 BB% in 2022.
His four-seamer, sinker, and slider have each been plus pitches, and more than any other pitcher, he’s the one who most seems like an automatic win whenever he bounds onto the mound.
GRADE: Got that dog in him.
José Berríos
Stats: 11 starts, 56.2 innings, 5.24 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 19.8 K%, 6.5 BB%, .279 BA Against, .355 wOBA Against, 1.59 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 6.57 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, .314 xBA Against, .407 xwOBA Against, .487 xwOBACON Against, 1.57 xHR/9
It may be unfair to say at this point, but Berríos’ 2022 season is going to be coloured by his disastrous Opening Day start. Since then (including his last couple starts, which aren’t reflected in the stats above), he’s posted a 4.16 ERA, which is closer to what one would have expected from Berríos going into the season, but still a couple ticks worse, with a dip to his strikeout rate and worrying jumps in hard hits and barrels. He has been better his last three starts though, with an ERA of 2.45 and a strikeout rate of 32.5 percent.
Much of his struggles, can, I believe, be linked to a drop in his curveball’s average spin rate. The lack of bite on his breaking ball prompts less chases, forcing Berríos back into the strike zone, where his four-seamer has been getting crushed. He’s also had trouble locating his sinker. When he’s right that pitch starts on the plate and comes in on the hands of righties, and starts in on lefty hitters’ hands before sinking back to catch the edge of the plate.
With that said, his whiffs have been trending up while his walks and dangerous contact allowed have both been trending down. The vibes are good, trust the vibes.
GRADE: B-
Yusei Kikuchi
Stats: 10 games, 46 innings, 3.91 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 25.1 K%, 12.1 BB%, .224 BA Against, .332 wOBA Against, 1.37 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 5.40 xERA, 4.06 xFIP, .265 xBA Against, .376 xwOBA Against, .464 xwOBACON Against, 1.41 xHR/9
Oh god, where to start. It’s easy to see why the Jays loved Kikuchi when you watch his stuff work. At his best, he’s looked terrific this season. But overall the output has been extremely erratic.
Fun fact: In six games where Kikuchi has used his four-seamer more than 50%, he has a 3.49 ERA. When that usage dips under 50%? That ERA balloons to 6.45. That four-seamer is by far his best pitch, and he loves using it early in the count, but once he gets to two strikes and falls behind, he pivots back to his slider and split-change, which are not bad pitches per se, but they become noncompetitive when they’re repeatedly lobbed just under the zone, running up the pitch count until he leaves one too high and it gets crushed, or he lets it drift in too low and a walk is given up.
It’s certainly too late to give up, especially when at this point Kikuchi’s issue is, in large part, “throw your fucking fastball”, but Pete Walker et al have their work cut out for them.
GRADE: C
Ross Stripling
Stats: 14 games (6 started), 37 innings, 3.65 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 20.1 K%, 5.2 BB%, .233 BA Against, .302 wOBA Against, 0.73 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 3.29 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, .252 xBA Against, .302 xwOBA Against, .356 xwOBACON Against, 0.71 xHR/9
Ah, finally, our very own soft-tossing righty who gets by via filling the zone with strikes and inducing groundouts. And they say Santa isn’t real.
Stripling started the year in his usual swingman role, but has seen his share of starts with Hyun Jin Ryu’s injuries, and will now assume a permanent role in the rotation with Ryu out for the season, at least until another addition is made.
Stripling’s success this season is owed to an increased ground ball rate combined with an improved ability to limit hard contact. While I haven’t been able to find a definitive reason for this, my current hypothesis is that it’s owed to more selective usage of his fastball and curveball combined with a more frequent mixing in of his changeup and slider to keep hitters off balance.
GRADE: To the Moon, Baby
Hyun Jin Ryu
Stats: 6 games, 27 innings, 5.33 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 14.2 K%, 3.5 BB%, .284 BA Against, .360 wOBA Against, 1.67 HR/9
Expected & Statcast Stats: 6.24 xERA, 3.95 xFIP, .308 xBA Against, .374 xwOBA Against, .424 xwOBACON Against, 1.93 xHR/9
Aw, man :(
GRADE: N/A
OUTFIELDERS
George Springer
Stats: 210 plate appearances, .273/.344/.525, 21 K%, 8.1 BB%, .371 wOBA, 144 wRC+, -1.2 DEF, 1.7 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .271 xBA, .494 xSLG, .357 xwOBA, .417 xwOBACON, 39.4 HardHit%, 6.7 Barrel/PA%
Personally, I’m still having trouble just beginning to wrap my head around the fact that George Springer is a Toronto Blue Jay.
I’m having trouble trying to come up with a new way to say “the guy everybody with an ounce of reason thought was really good is really good”, so how about some numbers? Since joining the Jays, Springer has slashed .267/.347/.534 with 34 home runs, 138 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR in 136 games. That’s the highest wRC+ mark among center fielders with at least 550 plate appearances over the last two seasons.
GRADE: A
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Stats: 193 plate appearances, .253/.316/.351, 17.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, .298 wOBA, 92 wRC+, -3.0 DEF, 0.1 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .274 xBA, .436 xSLG, .336 xwOBA, .371 xwOBACON, 46.5 HardHit%, 2.6 Barrel/PA%
At this point, you know what to expect from Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Long periods of wondering whether he’s familiar with the concept of a strike zone (interestingly enough, he’s actually chased much less this season than in previous campaigns), followed by stretches where he looks like the best hitter the Jays could possibly throw out there. And some… Adventurous defence followed by a Gold Glove nomination.
Gurriel’s power numbers have been down this year, owing to a lower barrel rate and some good old-fashioned bad batted-ball luck. He’s still made good contact overall and has boosted his on-base percentage by taking some more walks.
GRADE: B
Raimel Tapia
Stats: 159 plate appearances, .242/.274/.309, 20.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, .260 wOBA, 65 wRC+,-4.4 DEF, -0.5 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .259 xBA, .397 xSLG, .296 xwOBA, .352 xwOBACON, 35.3 HardHit%, 5 Barrel/PA%
What’s that? You don’t love Raimel Tapia? You don’t think he’s one of the most dynamic players on this team? That’s okay, we all have our awful takes. How does it feel being painfully boring, by the way?
Going by Expected Weighted On-Base Average, this has actually been Tapia’s best-ever offensive season. And he hasn’t looked great with the bat, but there’s definitely been notable improvements over his later season with the Rockies, as he’s stopped pounding the ball into the ground (his average launch angle has jumped from -4.4 to 4.6) and he’s begun occasionally barreling the ball. It’s not reflected as much in the pre-cutoff stats, but it’s paid some dividends, as he’s had a 120 wRC+ since May 13 (which represents half of his games played).
At least a chunk of Tapia’s ugly fWAR can be attributed to his bad defence, although it’s worth noting that much of the drag on his fielding value comes from his poor play in center and right field, which are both essentially out of position for him. He’s been perfectly fine so long as he’s been confined to left field.
GRADE: Transcends the grading curve
Teoscar Hernández
Stats: 127 plate appearances, .224/.291/.371, 24.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, .295 wOBA, 90 wRC+, -1.5 DEF, 0.2 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .268 xBA, .491 xSLG, .351 xwOBA, .433 xwOBACON, 45.9 HardHit%, 8.7 Barrel/PA
While Teoscar Hernández doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season thus far, he’s trending upwards, slashing .356/.405/.562 with a 174 wRC+ since May 24, the beginning of his first hit streak of the season after his injury. We’re big fans of arbitrary endpoints here at Jayslam.
What’s that you’re saying? There’s no way that Hernández deserves an All-Star nod over Byron Buxton, Tyler Ward, Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge, hell, even Julio Rodríguez?
Sorry nerds, we’re full send on these boys, no matter what your fancy “math” says.
GRADE:
Did not make the cut: Bradley Zimmer
INFIELDERS
Bo Bichette
Stats: 240 plate appearances, .252/.296/.434, 25.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, .319 wOBA, 107 wRC+, -1.1 DEF, 0.9 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .293 xBA, .510 xSLG, .358 xwOBA, .461 xwOBACON, 50.3 HardHit%, 7.1 Barrel/PA
You can identify who is or isn’t a hockey fan dallying with Blue Jays fandom by who is, at any given moment, clamouring for Bo Bichette to be either moved to second base or run out of town, depending on how recently he’s either swung at a pitch in the time zone for Nairobi, Kenya, or bobbled a tough play at shortstop.
There shouldn’t be much in the way of doubt regarding Bichette’s ability to be an excellent hitter, as he’s slashed .286/.341/.506 with 139 wRC+ since the beginning of May. Defence-wise, the metrics don’t love Bo, but the ever-important eye test would suggest that he’s made improvements since the month of April, as the frequency of frustrating errors has gone way down.
GRADE: B+
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Stats: 223 plate appearances, .254/.345/.587, 17.0 K%, 11.2 BB% .357 wOBA, 134 wRC+, -3.8 DEF, 1.0 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .295 xBA, .547 xSLG, .390 xwOBA, .439 xwOBACON, 52.9 HardHit%, 7.6 Barrel/PA
The way people talk about Vladdy’s 2022 season, you’d think he had regressed to his pre-2021 form, but he’s still had an excellent offensive season. Which is not to say his hopefully brief regression back to his 2020 lauch angle hasn’t been frustrating to watch at times, but there’s no reason to believe at this point that he isn’t closer to 2021 Vlad than the amalgamation of 2020 and 2021 Vlad that we’ve seen thus far.
Pitchers have been feeding Vladdy a diet of breaking balls just off the lower outside corner, which he had been swing and missing at. Once he makes that adjustment, and he will, they’ll be forced to either pitch away or pitch to him. And that doesn’t end well for pitchers.
Also worth mentioning are the defensive strides Vladdy has been making at first base. UZR has him as the third-best defensive first baseman this season, behind only Bobby Dalbec and Christian Walker, while Defensive Runs Saved has him as the second-best behind only Walker.
GRADE: A-
Matt Chapman
Stats: 207 plate appearances, .220/.309/.379, 24.6 K%, 10.1 BB%, .308 wOBA, 99 wRC+, 2.3 DEF, 1.0 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .251 xBA, .491 xSLG, .364 xwOBA, .439 xwOBACON, 51.5 HardHit%, 6.8 Barrel/PA
I’m not sure how to square Chapman’s unremarkable defensive metrics with the fact that he’s an absolute joy to watch play third base. I guess we’re back on the “math is for nerds” thing.
To an extent, Chapman’s defence is so good that I don’t give a shit what he does with the bat. And to be fair, the results have been perfectly serviceable. Even better (and/or frustrating), he’s hitting the ball extremely well, posting the best xwOBA of his career. According to Statchast, he’s hit 11.6 expected home runs this season, and only 9 actual ones. Baseball is bullshit.
GRADE: B+
Santiago Espinal
Stats: 205 plate appearances, .283/.341/.446, 17.1 K%, 8.3 BB%, .342 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 4.3 DEF, 1.7 fWAR
Expected & Statcast Stats: .301 xBA, .453 xSLG, .347 xwOBA, .392 xwOBACON, 37.5 HardHit%, 4.4 Barrel/PA
Me? I’ve always said that Santiago Espinal is not only an everyday player, but the best second baseman in the American League. Never said otherwise. You can’t prove it.
Espinal’s been one of the best defensive infielders in baseball, ranking top five in baseball in UZR for second baseman, and second in Outs Above Average behind only Jonathan Schoop.
The knock against Espinal in 2021 was that, despite his ability to put bat on ball, his .311 batting average was pretty empty, devoid of either extra base or home run power, and reliant entirely on finding holes in the opposing defence. Not a very sustainable skillset. Once you add power to that high-contact approach though, as Espinal has, and you have a player that I have a ton of time for.
GRADE: A
Did not make the cut: Cavan Biggio, Vinny Capra